Just about 96 hours ago, the price of bitcoin (BTC) was within a few dollars of breaking through its all-time high above $73,700, perhaps helped along by a surge in momentum for crypto-friendly GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

At that time, Trump's victory chances on betting market Polymarket had risen to as high as 67% (with his opponent Kamala Harris' chances dropping to a corresponding 33%).

Since, though, Trump's odds have been falling, as has the price of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. At one point overnight, the former president's victory chances declined to less than 53% (with Harris rising to above 47%). Alongside, bitcoin fell to as low as $67,600. At press time, during the U.S. morning hours Sunday, both Trump and bitcoin have come back a bit, with Trump sitting at 56% and bitcoin at $68,300, lower by more than 2% over the past 24 hours.

The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down 2.3% over the same time frame, with Cardano (ADA) and Avalance (AVAX) notable underperformers, each off nearly 6%.

"It's crazy how correlated bitcoin price action is to Trump's election odds," wrote analyst Miles Deutscher on X.

It's crazy how correlated #Bitcoin price action is to Trump's election odds.

Maybe it really is as simple as:
• Trump win = $BTC pump
• Kamala win = $BTC dump pic.twitter.com/8h8sUzJ0U6
— Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) November 3, 2024

Bitcoin Election 2024

Stephen Alpher

Stephen is CoinDesk's managing editor for Markets. He previously served as managing editor at Seeking Alpha. A native of suburban Washington, D.C., Stephen went to the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, majoring in finance. He holds BTC above CoinDesk’s disclosure threshold of $1,000.